Welcome Research Experience Code CV
I am an Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In that role,
I serve Esther George and Joseph Gruber in the policymaking process and conduct research on the macroeconomy.
This site provides details on my current research. My current work examines the effects of central bank communication on the macroeconomy and financial markets.
My FRB-KC Webpage
September 2020 Lots of belated updates! I posted a new working paper Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory & Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations (with A. Lee Smith). We argue that inflation expectations in the United States became better anchored not long after the FOMC began communicating a numerical longer-run inflation target in its Summary of Economic Projections. Also, posted a new working paper Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance? and a new Economic Bulletin Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance & Yield Curve Control.
December 2019 Posted a substantial revision of my work Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium (with Trenton Herriford and A. Lee Smith). We show how forward guidance shapes term premia, provides a novel explanation for the puzzling fact that monetary policy announcements affect distant real forward rates, and show that event studies overstate the effects of large-scale asset purchases when they fail to control for simultaneous forward guidance.
June 2019 Posted an updated version of my work The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks (with A. Lee Smith), which has been accepted for publication by The Review of Economics and Statistics. We argue that forward guidance shocks which lower the expected path of policy stimulate economic activity and prices. A standard model of monetary policy can largely reproduce these results.
The views expressed herein are my own and do not represent the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.